PDF Download , by Daniel Peris
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, by Daniel Peris
PDF Download , by Daniel Peris
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Product details
File Size: 2763 KB
Print Length: 368 pages
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education; 1 edition (July 6, 2018)
Publication Date: July 6, 2018
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B07DGQS3YP
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As both an accomplished historian and an accomplished fund manager, Daniel Peris brings unique insight and perspective to the fundamental question of how we should invest, individually and on a macro-level. As an historian, Peris asks and tracks how we got to where we are today, and argues that the modern portfolio theory of investment was a creature of academia, rather than the real world of business, and, to the extent that it had fit and utility at any point, modern portfolio theory is of limited or even negative value today. After the historical analysis, Peris puts on his fund manager hat and argues that, in lieu of modern portfolio theory, and its focus on share price, investors should instead act as any business owner would and focus on the cash stream (dividends) that a capital investment is likely to produce. Peris writes with humor, humility, and clarity. "Getting Back to Business" would be valuable solely as a work of history, or solely as a work of investment advice, but, here, the reader gets both.
Modern portfolio theory asserts that one can reduce risk without reducing return at least to a point, by diversifying.Another commonly employed strategy today is index investing, whereby the investor saves money on management fees, by buying a low expense index fund which have better returns than most managed funds (managed funds have to pay the managers, and any excess returns of individual stocks are unpredictable and arbitraged away by the active managers who buy and sell them according to their analysis, thus creating an efficient price for the 'index fund' investors who are sort of free-loading).Another approach is the value proposition which can be measured in a number of ways, however this author favors 'free cash flow.' "Free cash flow may be different from net income, as free cash flow takes into account the purchase of capital goods and changes in working capital." (Wikipedia)The author states (page 281), "ask yourself how much of portfolio is given over to guesswork..and how much of it is run like a business," ie. the true value of the business or enterprise. "The pendulum has swung too far to the former."I would make a couple of observations.1. The methods proposed by this book, seem compelling however the future is unknowable so free cash flow in the future can be difficult to predict.2. You have to pay the portfolio managers and this adds cost to your investments.3. His approach may work better now than in the past, because so many people are diversifying for diversifying's sake, which allows for the author's opportunity to weed out those stocks that are overvalued, just because they are purchased as part of an index. Indexing is basically a free ride on the efficiency of the market, which loses its efficiencies if too many people index as the prices of stocks are set by a more informed group of buyers and sellers like the author. Once too many people are free riding, there is not enough price finding experts to establish the efficient price, and stock pickers like the author can take advantage of these anomalies. We may be in such a period now, and perhaps have been for a while. My opinion also is that the author's approach works better in a bear down market, e.g. dot-com bust in 2000 was much worse for stocks with no real cash flow than it was for value stocks. In strong bull markets, in which fads, themes, and narratives can take hold, his approach may not work as well. Also times of marked inflation, e.g. 1970s, non-cash flow commodity and precious metals did very well which is an exception to his approach. I would admit that stock selections with good cash flow, probably did less-worse than 'nifty fifty' fad stocks, during that period of time, e.g. 1973-1974 bear market.4. Another point to be made, is that stocks can get over-valued and undervalued and some of the big gains in the market and it can be difficult to make much money in the market if one always sells at fair value, which is why some analysts always seem cautious way too soon, or almost all the time, e.g. Robert Shiller. Due to the unpredictable nature of markets and events, asset allocation and re-balancing. The author suggests doing this using different types of 'income streams' (page 274), rather than asset classes. This idea is of interest, and is consistent with the author's emphasis on 'free cash flow,' as the most important fundamental aspect of his approach.What concerns me about the author's mindset, is that there are macro forces at work, e.g. the meltdown in 2008, inflation of the 1970s, perhaps if we get into more trade disputes, that can make cash flow analysis a 'rear view mirror' exercise, and perhaps my fear is that diversifying among different themes depending on macro economic or world events might be important also.This book is an advanced, sort of text book like read and not for the novice investor, but would be good for a course in graduate school. A financial advisor, e.g. a CFA may also find this book to be a good one to have and read.I am giving the book five stars because it is so well written, researched, footnoted on a very complex subject.
Getting Back to Business is an argument against Modern Portfolio Theory and a drive to go back to looking at owning businesses with solid fundamentals and distinct profitability. It is a very academic argument against all sides of MPT and definitely not for the casual reader. However, if you are into economics or finance then there is quite a bit here worth considering. The idea of ETF’s becoming not diversified and simply a giant index of the market is well articulated. There were several points in this book I found myself nodding my head into agreement to especially as many people of my generation have invested and invested yet our returns have been nowhere near those magical numbers that are going to carry us into retirement. If you are someone who appreciates the history of business there is also a lot of value here as the author spends a good deal of time going back over the history of investing, cash flow, dividends, the rise of P/E ratios and the EFT as well as other salient corporate investment points. Finally, the other point I whole heartedly agree with and one of the reasons I left wall street behind was the focus on quarterly earnings over the long-term health of the company leads the company to make short sighted decisions that ultimately impact its future potential. This outdated mode of thinking is doing immense harm to the American economy and is quantified well here. Overall a very interesting read and I think if the modern finance industry was not so entrenched in what it was doing this offers a unique way forward. It serves as a good reminder of why I left the wall street world behind.
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