Selasa, 27 Desember 2011

Posted by erykahfinaceliadicaprio on Desember 27, 2011 in | No comments

Free Ebook The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream, by Amy Webb

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The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream, by Amy Webb

The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream, by Amy Webb


The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream, by Amy Webb


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The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream, by Amy Webb

Review

"Webb teaches us to listen...[she] combines well-researched, reader-friendly insights on Google, drones and artificial intelligence with a system of questions you can bring to your next strategy meeting..."―Chicago Tribune"Will undoubtedly help leaders contemplate what lies ahead. Webb provides a logical way to sift through today's onslaught of events and information to spot coming changes in your corner of the world."―Kirkus Reviews"[The Signals Are Talking] provides several brain-bending future possibilities...Webb's stellar reputation in this red-hot field should generate demand."―Booklist"At this moment, it seems obvious that we could all stand to brush up on our skills as prognosticators. And not just so we can avoid being blindsided by seismic elections, but because technology promises to continue its disruptive march through our societies and economies. What will cabbies do when cars are self-driving, and what will warehouse workers do when robots can pick, pack, and ship without lunch breaks and health care benefits? Forget NAFTA; the shift is toward Silicon Valley. But where to start? The Signals Are Talking: Why Today's Fringe Is Tomorrow's Mainstream is a good place. Sitting somewhere between Nate Silver and The Tipping Point, Amy Webb's book provides a practical guide for leaders - at any level - in the age of Big Data, offering tools for picking out the 'true signal, a pattern that will coalesce into a trend with the potential to change everything' - and land on the right side of disruption."―Jon Foro, The Amazon Book Review (An Amazon Best Book of December 2016)"The clear, insightful, and humorous Amy Webb has crafted a rare treasure: a substantive guide written in a narrative that's a delight to read. While most futurologists want guru status through a few Nostradamus-like visions that never materialize, Webb modestly reports with depth and discipline, and creates a system and tools we can all use to better navigate the future. Through her deep research, specific anecdotes and brilliant insights, she has performed the selfless but hugely valuable act of teaching us all to fish at the fringe."―Christopher J. Graves, Global Chair, Ogilvy Public Relations"Amy Webb, with insight and a big dose of pragmatism, shows how to clearly see the next big disruption and then take action before it strikes"―Ram Charan, advisor to CEOs and corporate boards, author of The Attackers Advantage and co-author of Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done"Forecasting the future is a challenging-and absolutely necessary-part of every leader's job. In this ambitious and timely book Amy Webb shows not only how to identify actual trends and surprises emerging from the fringes but-even more important-how to do something about them so you can thrive in the face of the unexpected."―Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist"The best leaders will know how to listen for the future. Amy Webb's book tells you the signals to listen for-as well as the noise you should ignore. The signals are talking and leaders should listen."―Bob Johansen, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for the Future, author of Leaders Make the Future"The renowned futurist Amy Webb zeroes in-with clarity, specificity and verve-on the indispensable skill for people in every industry: how to recognize and interpret the clues that reveal the next big thing."―Vivian Schiller, former president and CEO, National Public Radio

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About the Author

Amy Webb is an author, futurist, and founder of the Future Today Institute, a leading future forecasting and strategy firm that researches technology and answers "What is the future of X?" for a global client base. Now in its second decade the Institute advises Fortune 500 and Global 1000 companies, government agencies, nonprofits, universities, and startups around the world. Amy was named to the Thinkers50 Radar List of those management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

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Product details

Paperback: 336 pages

Publisher: PublicAffairs; Reprint edition (March 6, 2018)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1541788230

ISBN-13: 978-1541788237

Product Dimensions:

5.5 x 0.9 x 8.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 9.9 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.2 out of 5 stars

37 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#36,169 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Amy Webb is in my circle of acquaintances among the various futurists that populate LinkedIn, so when she announced her book The Signals Are Talking, I immediately added it to my Read Now list.Ordinarily, I can go through books like these in a few hours, but Ms. Web's book, even though relatively short, took me a few weeks. Why? Because every chapter required reading in small bites, thinking through the implications, jotting down notes and occasionally arguments, and in general studying it.What Amy Webb has written is no less than a primer on how to be a futurist. She lays down a coherent methodology for identifying the unusual suspects that are often at the forefront of technological and (perhaps less forcefully social) innovation, mapping out the signals as parts of broader trends, establishing time lines and viability, creating scenarios that tells the story of the impacts of this innovation, testing those scenarios with stakeholders and then building a strategy for organizations to best utilize this research to position themselves in the market.This book should be a must read for organizational strategists, investors, technologists, politicians, data scientists and science fiction authors, really, anyone whose business or area of concern is dealing with the deluge of change around us. It also helps to differentiate between what is "shiny", which often makes for great click bait but never quite materializes, and what are the deeper trends that often occur over decades, and are usually the result of multiple converging and competing factors.I would like to see a followup to The Signals Are Talking that digs more in depth into the realm of predictive analytics and how the two complement, and occasionally compete, with one another. Nonetheless I cannot recommend the Signals Are Talking high enough.

I was hoping this book would either teach me how to think like a futurist or explain all of Webb's insightful predictions about the future. Instead, it does a poor job of #1 and barely attempts #2. Aside from some interesting predictions about drones in the beginning and a few tidbits about AR in the last chapter, Webb spends most of the book rehashing how various organizations/people were able to predict the future successfully. Nintendo and Uber are among those examples. Hindsight is 20/20 right? I'm sure it wasn't super challenging to cherrypick the successful organizations and backwards-engineer them as great examples of past-futurists.Webb also does this backwards engineering with her own predictions, recounting how she predicted the trend in voice-based digital assistants. I'm more interested in her actual predictions of the actual future though. I already know voice-based digital assistants are big now - I'd rather she went out on a limb, took a risk, and told me what she thinks will happen in 2025 and why.Regarding the teaching section, there are some infographics and broad questions included, but it feels like reading a fluff online article or infographic. Pretty to look at but generally not specifically actionable. Who is the audience for this book? CEOs trying to predict the future themselves? (Doubtful, they would just hire her) Laypeople who want to predict the future? (You're not going to come away feeling like you have an action plan, only an idea of what Webb did in the past) Laypeople who want to read some interesting predictions and not a history of Uber? (Very light on the actual predictions, but they were the most interesting part).I did love Webb's memoir book, Data: A Love Story, and I think she can write well at a technical level if the ideas and overall topic are better thought-out and organized. If she writes another book along those lines, perhaps I'll give her writing another try.

Every job I've ever had has asked me to forecast the future. I've done projections for new projects, new markets, new initiatives. Forecasts beyond the next few months are usually BS.Except in some cases when they aren't. Many people look at those who "guessed right" and either think they are extremely brilliant - or extremely lucky.This book helps disprove both of those assumptions. This book gives clear direction for what to look for, how to analyze and review those data points, and how to string together those signals to theorize what may be coming next. Here in early 2017, we all need to be able to analyze what's on the fringe and see how it connects to make tomorrow's mainstream - sometimes only a few weeks away, and sometimes a decade.Highly recommend the book, and looking forward to sharing it.

I assigned Signals to my online digital media entrepreneurship class — seniors and graduate students at the Cronkite School of Journalism at Arizona State University — a few weeks ago because I wanted the students to try future forecasting. I had the students articulate the signals that MTV/Viacom missed in 2005-7 that cost the company its position as the arbiter of what is in/hip/cool for youth culture. Separately, the students each had to make a prediction about new technology coming our way in 5+ years and articulate all of the signals that are talking to them now that are informing those predictions. The final assignment is for each distributed group to come up with a digital media business idea by using the methodologies in the book. I can’t wait to see what they come up with. The students enjoyed the book because it opened up a new way of thinking. The debates in the discussion boards over which of their classmates’ predictions were plausible and which were shiny objects were passionate and they drew upon the lessons in the book. Several students said they could not wait to pass the book on to friends and family. It is no small feat to get an online class super engaged in a complicated subject. I look forward to incorporating the book into my on-the-ground innovation course.

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Senin, 26 Desember 2011

Posted by erykahfinaceliadicaprio on Desember 26, 2011 in | No comments

Free PDF I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick

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I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick

I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick


I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick


Free PDF I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick

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I Spy Extreme Challenger: A Book of Picture Riddles, by Jean Marzollo Walter Wick

Amazon.com Review

After mastering the many I Spy books and then moving on to conquer the tougher-riddled I Spy Gold Challenger, kids begged Jean Marzollo and Walter Wick for an even greater challenge. Naturally, this creative team rose to the occasion, creating the ultimate: Extreme Challenger! Open to any page and find a mind-boggling array of things: "a lobster, a pig, a guitar, / Two skulls, a button, a spring, a car." Wick's exceptional photographic skill renders every object crystal clear, whether on a blank white background or against a backdrop of dusty old bookshelves with antique toys, keys, clocks, and tools. Marzollo's rhymes are straightforward yet clever, matching "an ace" with "a missing bottle's space," and "puffball shoes" with "sad blue ooze." Children will have so much fun "I spying," they won't even realize they're developing their visual discrimination ability, as well as their reading and vocabulary skills! Extra credit riddles at the end of the big, colorful book provide an additional test of readers' nimbleness, and the authors also encourage children to write their own rhyming picture riddles based on the illustrations in the book. Okay, all you eagle-eyes out there, have at it! (Ages 3 to 8) --Emilie Coulter

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From Publishers Weekly

Fans of Walter Wick's previous delectable photographic feasts for the eyes will gobble up the I Spy Extreme Challenger!: A Book of Picture Riddles by Jean Marzollo. The volume includes a stunning spread of "Odds and Ends" (from the original I Spy) and a composition of gorgeous antique playthings in "The Toy Box Solution" (from I Spy Mystery). (Scholastic/Cartwheel, $13.95 40p ages 6-10 ISBN 0-439-19900-X; Sept.) Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product details

Age Range: 4 - 8 years

Grade Level: 1 - 3

Series: I Spy

Hardcover: 40 pages

Publisher: Cartwheel; 1 edition (October 1, 2000)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 043919900X

ISBN-13: 978-0439199001

Product Dimensions:

9.2 x 0.4 x 12.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.6 out of 5 stars

113 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#9,859 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

I'm 19 years old and I bought one for me and one for my 55 year old father and we both love it. It's much more difficult than a traditional I Spy book and I have spent countless fun hours searching for the items. When I can't find one or my dad can't find one we'll cal one another and as for hints and help. It's lots of fun and I appreciate the quality of work these books have always had.

If you have a lot of these you might see some duplicate pages. This is sort of a best of type of book but we only found a few duplicates from other books.We bought this used from a reliable seller, and it was really great looking.Excellent complicated pages that really last. Great colors and objects.Large oversized pages and hardback.Great for something to do for kids that doesn't include electronics.

I originally bought this for my 6 and 8 year old children but while looking through it I started looking for items myself on each page and some are pretty difficult to find! There is a variety of scenes per page(s) and it's a lot of fun. I always enjoyed these books when I was young and am glad they're still around for my kids.

This has been a great tool for our autistic foster child with severe ADHD. It helps him to stay focused while helping him read and comprehend. It has also helped him to see other things that would normally blend in, such as finding matching socks in a pile of socks. I highly recommend these books to for anyone, I enjoy looking at them too!

This wasn't for me, I have a brother who wanted it. It made a great birthday present. It arrived on time, it was in very, very good shape. It's like I brought it at a department store, only better because I didn't have to lift a single finger (well except to order it online of course). Aside from that these books are some of the best when it comes to puzzles for children. Scholastic is a great company and highly successful. But don't take my word for it, find out for yourself, you'll be thrilled to know not only what a great gift this makes (if you have a box that fits this) but also how entertaining this is. The illustrations are genius and perfect for those just learning to read. Plus there are a few that even adults might have trouble finding. Overall this book helped me celebrate my brothers birthday and I hope it can help celebrate whatever gift giving event you're buying for.

Bought this for an adult friend who was going in to the hospital. My husband "played" it before we gave it to her. At the hospital it was mostly used by her visitors while she was recovering. Now she keeps it in her living room for when her niece visits.

I loved these books as a kid and still do as an adult! I think they are fairly challenging and interesting to keep you entertained on a road trip. I got a used copy but it was still in great condition. I will buying the whole collection soon!

Terrific and fun for all, great challenge to develop observation skills. Our 5 yr. oldloves it and keeps him involved and loves the test of skills.

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Minggu, 04 Desember 2011

Posted by erykahfinaceliadicaprio on Desember 04, 2011 in | No comments

Free PDF Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen

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Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen

Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen


Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen


Free PDF Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen

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Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen

Product details

Paperback: 296 pages

Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform; 1/23/12 edition (February 22, 2012)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1470109441

ISBN-13: 978-1470109448

Product Dimensions:

6 x 0.7 x 9 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

3.4 out of 5 stars

192 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#125,104 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

The floor plans don't show any dimensions! These are very amateur. I think the author might have been trying to make it easy for the laymen to read, but it really just doesn't look that good. Each chapter is organized by the size of the tiny house instead of taking to the time to put dimensions on each one. This means you have to infer the size of other things within the house, which is difficult.

It's well laid out by sizes, and It's refreshing to see so many floor plans of layouts for tiny homes you could actually live in long term without going crazy, ( much bigger than the usual 8x16)... But a lot of the plans are for cabin sized floor plans that would actually be considered "small homes" vs tiny homes, because at 12' or wider, they could not be placed on wheels or easily transported. There were some refreshing ideas for layouts ( an accomplishment when you consider the limits of options caused by a width of 8-8.5'). I would like to have seen more side entry ideas ( a personal preference of mine because I feel an end entry limits the design and wastes wall use), but many of these floor plans could be adapted easily to a side entry. I was also hoping for some options with narrow stairs to sleeping lofts instead of ladders..... also a personal preference if mine.Unlike some reviewers I didn't expect a book full of working floor plans and materials lists for this price, and no rational thinking person should. In spite of the numerous plans for homes that do not qualify as "tiny" or towable I liked the book. Especially intriguing, the plans that stretched the length to over 24' and those that included a small office or store front on the end.... Great for folks on the move to generate money on the road, and easily converted to a studio space for artists wanting to live full time tiny while keeping the clutter of creating art out of the living space.If you're downsizing and dreaming of building a tiny house, this book is worthy of some of your shelf space.

This is a very simple book with page after page of floor plans for tiny (REALLY TINY) houses on or off wheels. It is 'mind-candy' for those of us who want tiny homes of our own. No formal plans, just easy to think about line drawings for very tiny to larger tiny (yes, there is such a thing) houses. Some have features with just lofts for sleeping, some can accommodate sleep sofas on the main level and some have a tiny separate area in the back suitable for a tiny office, shop or guest room. When I travel this book is one that automatically gets popped into my backpack so I can keep considering ideas. The house size progresses from tiniest to largest so by the end one is seeing plans that lack very little in the way of comforts. All of the plans are sized to be built on trailers if you wish so you never have to 'leave home'. Who needs a tiny home on wheels (or not)? College students/graduates, people who like the idea of living simply, for use as a vacation retreats, "Granny-Flats", temporary housing, and more. Terrific resource for planning.

Even though there were poo-pooz about similar variations and lack of structural design from actual engineer designers, I still purchased this book and am so relieved. I have flipped through about 1/4 of the pages and have ideas popping up in how much of my white-out I will use to tweak some of these. It's best to look at every single one since ideas have come forth for me in even the smallest of design. This book has proved to me that living in a home that is only 7+ feet wide ( from the inside dimensions ) can be done and in many variations.Yes, many are similar when you get into the longer floor plans but it gives the observer an idea of the layout with furnishings. I already know that I will have a compost toilet which is movable unless your dump bucket is attached to the exterior. So when I now look at the "water closet" (which was its original name) I know the entire area can be the shower with the compost toilet temporarily moved out of it during a shower . I'm so happy to be enjoying this book with much enthusiasm. Before this, there were maybe less than a dozen floor plan variations/alternatives to choose.

All of the ‘plans’ in this book can easily be found open source online. Also, ‘floor plans’ is a stretch. There are maybe a dozen plans, and the rest is really just moving furniture around. And, all, of the plans are for ladder-accessible lofts. There are no stair-accessible plans. To me that is the most complicated thing to figure out on a tiny house. I’m sad I spent time even looking through this book.

There are loads of plans to look at which is great, but it's so hard to view them in a friendly format. When viewing on Kindle for PC, you can't enlarge the plans so they are just a hazy image at the top of the page that you have to squint to look at. I gave up trying. When viewing on Kindle app for Android, you can't just simply scroll through the plans. Again, the plan is an image taking up only 1/2 the page, and you have to double tap the image to open each one. You then have to close the image, scroll to the next page, open image, close it, scroll next, etc. There has to be a better way to publish these images so they can be viewed simply by scrolling from page to page. That being said, in looking that the plans, there is a lot of inspiration to be had, and the templates provided will make it very easy to come with the perfect plan to fit my requirements. I just hope my patience holds out.

It did have a handful of floor plans for the size I needed, however there are no pictures at all showing any of these floorplans. This may not be an issue for any one else, but sometimes I just need to see the lay out to fully get the details. I started to send it back as soon as I opened it, but figured being a book it was not an option. Lesson learned, go to the bookstore.

"Read" this book once, gave it away. This is just the same collection of recycled images of furniture reorganized in a an increasing 5x5 grid over and over. It looks like a school project for someones engineering/architecture algorithm. No thought or idea (there are literally no words in this book just pictures) given to the context of what makes a house a home.

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Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen PDF

Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen PDF

Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen PDF
Tiny House Floor Plans: Over 200 Interior Designs for Tiny Houses, by Michael Janzen PDF

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